Waverly, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS63 KDMX 302314
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
614 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm into the upper 80s through the weekend with
  upper level smoke making for hazy skies.

- Thunderstorms return to the area on Tuesday and we continue to
  monitor the potential for severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

While most of Iowa is cloud free this afternoon, one cannot look up
into a blue sky. Smoke from wildfires across Canada has pushed
into Iowa today and satellite imagery shows this blanketing a
large swath of the midwest. This smoke has remained aloft with
no observational sites reporting reductions to visibility that
would indicate smoke making it to the ground. HRRR and RAP smoke
data continues to indicate that this will last through Saturday
as well. There is a chance with a passing shortwave on Saturday
that some of this smoke may be pulled down to the surface, and
this is indicated with slightly elevated concentrations in both
RAP and HRRR surface smoke variables. Any impacts to air quality
across Iowa will be monitored by the Iowa DNR. Aside from smoke
impacts, the passing shortwave should have little tangible
impact to Iowa weather with CAMs keeping the area dry. A stray
shower my be possible in the afternoon with marginal instability
in some HRRR soundings, however confidence to include this in
the forecast at this time is low.

Meanwhile, temperatures through the weekend and into Monday will
soar through the mid to upper 80s with theta e advection into
the area as the thermal ridge shifts east.

At the same time, a western US trough will dig across the Rockies
with an associated surface low ejecting across the midwest by Monday
into Tuesday. Impacts to Iowa look to arrive on Tuesday and this
will be the next window for thunderstorms. The current track
takes the low across Missouri and lifting into Illinois to
Wisconsin. That would keep the more robust impacts to the south,
however southern Iowa could see some triple point action as the
surface low skims southern Iowa. GFS soundings at Lamoni and
Des Moines indicate 1200-1500 J/kg surface based CAPE with
100-200+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and nicely curved hodographs through
roughly the lowest 3 km. While better deep layer shear lags the
instability axis in current model runs, this environment remains
more than sufficient for supporting organized convection. We`ll
continue to fine tune the forecast in the coming days, but this
will likely be the next window for severe storms in Iowa.
Another system will pass over the area late this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period and surface
winds will relax overnight with only a slight rebound on
Saturday. The main forecast concern is smoke advecting in from
the northwest that has resulted in hazy skies across portions
of the upper midwest. With a short wave dropping down in the
northwest flow tomorrow, there is a chance that smoke could mix
down closer to the surface. Confidence remains low and will
maintain weather watch and see how this evolves.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...DMD